1. Monday, August 2, 2004

    it might not be the yankees vs the red sox 

    or the yankees vs the dodgers or even the dodgers vs the giants

    but the cardinals + cubs rivarly is a nice one

    maybe a little too nice

    and this year hopefully the cubs can break a few hearts (other than the man in the picture to the left who flew for some reason bought airline tickets from boston to minnesota to try to get nomar’s autograph despite the fact that the all star shortstop played for years in boston… until yesterday).

    the cubs as you might know are in second place behind st louis in the national league central, ten and a half games out.

    the cardinals have the best record in baseball at 67-37.

    only one other team in baseball has over 60 wins and its a team with arod jeter sheff matsui rivera mussina v�zquez rivera and now olerud, and even they havent won as many as the redbirds.

    and so when i declared this weekend on this very blog that it would not be the cardinals who would end this season in first place in the central, that instead it would be the cubs, i got a little flack from one particular JJ who left not one but four comments (rightfully) questioning my sanity.

    “Ok, I did some math. AS I type, The Cards are 67-37, with 58 games remaing. Now, if they merely play .500 ball the rest of the way, 29-29, that puts them at 96-66, a pretty nice record probably good enough for the NL central title. By the same token, if the Cubs were to catch St. Lou, they need to go 39-18 the rest of the way which would be a lofty .684 clip. Possible? I suppose. Probable? Hell no.

    Those 39 wins (which they won’t get anyway) are only good, remember, if the Cards play .500 the rest of the way, and they way they’ve been playing, I don’t forsee that happening. The fact is, Nomar is a nice addition, but the Cubs didn’t address their most pressing need, bullpen help. They’re not going to win the 39-45 of the last 57 games they need to win it with this team.”

    JJ

    which made me do a little math.

    the last time the cubs ended their season near 39-18 was a year when they finished their last 60 games 37-23.

    that year happened to be last year.

    a stretch in which they didnt have derrick lee, greg maddux, corey patterson, or nomah.

    are those four guys the difference between two wins from last years finish? i would believe so.

    are the cardinals going to continue this scorching hot streak, outpacing everyone in baseball including the yankees who somehow dont even need jason giambi?

    i would believe not.

    unlike the first two thirds of the season, the cubs are now relatively healthy. for the exception of mark prior who, when healthy, is virtually unhitable, this last third of the season finds the cubs at almost full strength with a favorable schedule including lots of games versus the mets, pirates, expos, and marlins.

    of course the cubs dont have to make up ten games over ten weeks.

    but they could.

    and if they would do it to anyone, it wouldnt be sweeter than doing it to the cardinals.

    who never did really anything bad to the cubs. and sorta, indirectly, gave us harry caray, who i would easilly give lou brock up for.

    24 hour revenge therapy + virginia anne + aaron’s baseball blog