nate silver was on Reddit’s ask me anything yesterday.

Hall of Fame Baseball

because baseball is the national pasttime, and because stats fit in so nicely with baseball, he answered several questions about the game, roids, and the Hall of Fame.

Q. Would you vote for Barry Bonds or Roger Clemens to get into the Hall of Fame? — Dovercourt

A. Yes, I think, in large part because the split-the-baby solutions to steroids use are hard to apply in practice. I might use steroids use as a tiebreaker for otherwise very close cases (and I think McGwire, Sosa and Palmeiro all fall into that category). But I don’t think people should pretend that we can put each player’s stats through some kind of algorithm and come up with “steroid-neutral” statistics. We just don’t know all that much about who did and didn’t use steroids, and when.

this may be the first year where no one is allowed in.

including, weirdly, mike piazza who, far as i can tell, never was a steroids guy, but i guess he’s “suspicious”